APAC Advertising To Fall 1.1%

The latest research from Media Partners Asia (MPA), publisher of Asia Media Journal, shows advertising in Asia-Pacific falling by 1.1% in net terms in 2009, representing the first decline the region will have experienced since the 1998 financial crisis.

MPA anticipates recovery in 2010, projecting 5.3% growth next year.

"The gap between perception and reality is closing fast, with ad demand deteriorating in key markets, depressing earnings for media owners," says MPA executive director Vivek Couto.

"A sustained recovery is unlikely without a strong pick-up in the global economy, expected to occur next year."

Previously, MPA guided for 1.5% growth this year but the advertising fall-out in Japan has intensified, while softness in India and China is more marked than anticipated. There could also be more downside revisions due to potentially worse declines in Australia, as well as a weaker India outlook.

Despite the Beijing Olympics, Asia-Pacific ad growth moderated to 3.4% in 2008, versus 6.7% growth in 2007. In spite of strong growth in China, advertising was weak in Australia, Korea and Japan during the fourth quarter, while India also softened in Q4 along with Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.

Advertising in Asia excluding Australia and Japan grew by 11.1% in 2008, though MPA predicts a marked deceleration in this particular region to 4.2% growth in 2009, prior to renewed momentum in 2010 with 9.0% growth.

Regional growth will continue to converge around China, India and Indonesia, with MPA forecasts suggesting each of these markets will grow at a CAGR of 10% over the next five years, in spite of a near-term slowdown.